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Australia 82% Renewable by 2030; You’re Joking!  Large Energy User Challenges.

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Australia has set ambitious 2030 climate goals: cutting emissions by 43% from 2005 levels and achieving 82% renewable electricity in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Northmore Gordon wholeheartedly welcomes this vision and the recent surge in renewable energy investment. However, the latest data, and Northmore Gordon’s experience with large energy users, reveals a worrying gap between ambition and reality – progress on the ground is not keeping pace with Australia’s targets.

After steady growth, the renewable share (~39% in 2023) has plateaued amid rising demand. (CER Quarterly Carbon Market Report December Quarter 2024)

Renewable energy provided roughly 39% of Australia’s electricity in 2023 (up from just 17% in 2017). But in 2024 this momentum has stalled as electricity demand continues to climb. Simply put, the pace of renewable deployment is not yet on track to hit our targets, despite a strong investor appetite.



Renewables Investment: High Ambition, Slow Delivery

Significant investment is pouring into new generation. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMOAEMO, also known as an Australian Energy Market Operator. Is a body that manages electricity and gas systems and markets across Australia. Helping to ensure Australian's have access to affordable, secure and reliable energy.) reported in the December 2024 quarter the energy pipeline continues momentum for large scale solar and wind projects:

This “connections scorecard” underscores the bottleneck between projects being planned and projects actually delivering energy. 

Furthermore, the Federal Government’s Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) is driving even more capacity (and a lower LGCLarge-scale Generation Certificate under the Australian Renewable Energy Target. More price). In December 2024 under the first tender DCCEWW announced:

This is a tremendous boost – enough to power ~3 million homes – the pipeline of projects is clearly not the problem; the real issue is converting this pipeline into electrons on the grid.



Grid Bottlenecks: Large Energy Users Left Waiting

While utility-scale wind and solar farms grab headlines, large energy users attempting to deploy their own clean and electrification energy projects are hitting the same wall. Northmore Gordon works with dozens of large energy users – from meat processing plants and dairy factories to cold storage facilities, industrial laundries, and food & beverage manufacturers – and many are facing 12 – 36 month delays to connect new renewable generation or behind-the-meter electrification projects. Even when businesses are eager to invest in on-site solar, electrification, or bioenergyBiomass is plant or animal material used to produce electricity or heat. Examples include forestry by-products, crop waste, animal waste and food processing waste. Biomass is considered a renewable energy fuel if it comes from a sustainably managed source., they often wait 1 – 3 years for the network to catch up. These delays impose real costs and slow down emissions reduction in sectors ready to decarbonise.

In 2024, on behalf of our customers, Northmore Gordon undertook 20 electrification studies (converting fossil-fueled equipment to electric alternatives), and these exposed two systemic barriers:

These two issues derail the business case for electrification and battery storage in many of our studies.  The economic reward for using or storing midday renewable energy is weak under present tariffs and connections will take too long.



Rewiring the Nation: A Call to Action for DNSPs and Government

Australia’s clean energy transition will not succeed without proactive support from the grid itself. Distributed Network Service Providers (DNSPs) – our power distribution companies – must become enablers of the transition for large energy users – some are – but most are not. These companies oversee the “poles and wires” in each region, and they need the right incentives and regulatory direction to act in the public interest. We urge DNSPs to work closely with industry and streamline the connection process for big customers. Fast-tracking assessments, investing in necessary local upgrades, and providing transparency on capacity constraints are ways DNSPs can directly help.

Meanwhile, the Federal Government has a powerful lever in its $20 billion Rewiring the Nation fund. This initiative needs to further align policy and investment with the needs of large energy users and renewable developers alike. We call on government to deploy Rewiring the Nation capital and policy support toward four critical priorities:



Australia’s 2030 targets are bold and achievable, but only if we match ambition with action

Large energy users are ready to invest in clean energy and be part of the solution. It’s now up to our network providers and governments to clear the path – by rewiring the nation’s grid, reforming tariffs, and removing bottlenecks – so that 82% renewables (and beyond) can become a reality. The time for bold, collaborative action is now, to ensure Australia’s energy transition stays on track and delivers benefits for all.

Contact us today to continue the conversation.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is general only and has been prepared without considering your business’ particular circumstances and needs. You should assess or seek advice from Northmore Gordon Environmental (AFSL 533927) on whether it is appropriate for your business’s objectives.

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What are Australia's 2030 climate goals mentioned in this article?

Australia has set goals to cut emissions by 43% from 2005 levels and achieve 82% renewable electricity in the National Electricity Market (NEM) by 2030.

What was Australia's renewable electricity share in 2023, and how has it trended?

Renewable energy provided roughly 39% of Australia's electricity in 2023, up from just 17% in 2017, but this momentum stalled in 2024 as electricity demand continued to climb, meaning the pace of renewable deployment is not yet on track to hit the 2030 targets.

What did AEMO report about the renewable energy project pipeline in the December 2024 quarter?

AEMO reported that in Q4 2024, 20 projects (~4.9 GW) gained connection approval, 11 projects (~1.7 GW) were fully grid-registered and ready to generate, but only 4 projects (~0.6 GW) actually reached full output during the quarter, highlighting a bottleneck between planned and delivered projects.

What did the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) tender announce in December 2024?

Under the first tender, DCCEEW announced that 19 new large-scale renewable projects totaling 6.4 GW combined were awarded, enough to power approximately 3 million homes.

How long are large energy users facing delays to connect renewable generation or electrification projects?

Northmore Gordon reports that many large energy users, such as meat processing plants, dairy factories, cold storage facilities, industrial laundries, and food & beverage manufacturers, face 12–36 month delays (often cited as 1–3 years, or 2–4 years for network upgrades) to connect new renewable generation or behind-the-meter electrification projects.

What two systemic barriers did Northmore Gordon's 2024 electrification studies expose?

In 2024, Northmore Gordon undertook 20 electrification studies for customers that exposed two systemic barriers: grid capacity constraints (many industrial sites lack local grid capacity for new loads or generation, with waits of 2–4 years for network upgrades) and misaligned tariffs (current network tariff structures, including demand charges and flat network tariffs, do little to incentivize using cheap daytime solar power).

What is Rewiring the Nation, and how much funding does it involve?

Rewiring the Nation is the Federal Government's $20 billion fund intended to support Australia's clean energy transition; the article calls for this capital and policy support to be directed toward grid capacity upgrades, faster connections, tariff reform, and support for behind-the-meter projects.

What four priorities does Northmore Gordon call on the government to fund through Rewiring the Nation?

The article calls for Rewiring the Nation capital and policy support to target: (1) grid capacity upgrades in renewable-rich regions and industrial zones, (2) faster connections with clear timelines and DNSP accountability to shrink 2–4 year wait times to months, (3) tariff reform to reward use of cheap, clean daytime power, and (4) support for behind-the-meter projects through targeted funding or incentives for on-site generation and storage.

What role does the article say DNSPs should play in Australia's clean energy transition?

The article states that Distributed Network Service Providers (DNSPs), which oversee the poles and wires in each region, must become enablers of the transition for large energy users by streamlining connection processes, fast-tracking assessments, investing in necessary local upgrades, and providing transparency on capacity constraints; it notes some DNSPs are doing this but most are not.

Who is Craig Morgan and what is his background according to the page?

Craig Morgan is described as a mechanical engineer with 30 years' experience, including more than fifteen years assisting organisations manage energy, greenhouse gas emissions, and the impacts of climate change, with seven years focused on energy management and greenhouse gas inventory development and mitigation, and six years on renewable energy generation systems.

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