Australian Certificate Markets – February Update.

• Hamish McGovern
• March 1, 2026
• News

Executive Summary by Hamish McGovern, Group Managing Director

The Australian environmental certificate markets in February 2026 were characterised by a general softening in prices across most sectors, driven by high supply and the meeting of compliance deadlines. While the ACCUAn ACCU is a unit issued to a person by the Clean Energy Regulator (Regulator) by making an entry for the unit in an account kept by the person in the electronic [Australian National Registry of Emissions Units] registry. Each ACCU issued represents one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2-e) stored or avoided by a project. An ACCU can only be issued to a person if the person has a Registry account., ESCAn energy savings certificate (ESC) is a tradeable certificate created under Division 7 of Part 9 of the Electricity Supply Act 1995. Each ESC represents one notional megawatt hour (MWh) of energy., LGCLarge-scale Generation Certificate under the Australian Renewable Energy Target. More, and STCSmall-scale Technology Certificate under the Australian Renewable Energy Target. More markets saw downward price pressure, the VEECVictorian Energy Efficiency Certificate market remained a notable outlier, with prices continuing to climb despite strong creation rates. 

• ACCU Softening: Prices for ACCUs drifted down from $37.50 to $36.25 as March 31 compliance demand was largely satisfied and the CER expecting issuance for 2026 to grow to 22-26m. 

• ESC Eased, while ESCs finished lower at $22.25 following increased end-of month registration volume.  The NSW ESSThe NSW Energy Savings Scheme (ESS) provides financial incentives to install, improve or replace energy savings equipment and appliances in NSW households and businesses. The ESS was established in 2009. Financial incentives are in the form of tradeable certificates, called energy savings certificates (ESCs). Generally, householders and businesses who fund energy savings activities transfer the right to create ESCs to Accredited Certificate Providers (ACPs) in return for a discount on the cost of the energy savings activity.  The MWh savings from the project determines the number of ESCs that can be created. The ESS works by allowing ACPs to create and register ESCs for energy savings that are supported with appropriate evidence. ESCs are then purchased each year by mainly electricity retailers operating in NSW to meet their share of a legislated annual energy savings target. had the statutory review and rule change consultations close in February.  

• VEEC Liquidity Constraints: Despite creation rates reaching 120k-130k per week (above the run rate for the 4.4M annual target), a lack of spot liquidity pushed prices up to finish February at $83.00.  The VEUVictorian Energy Upgrades is a Victorian government energy efficiency program that gives every Victorian household and business the opportunity to receive rebates or discounts on energy saving products. Regulator the ESC continues to maintain a strict enforcement stance, with multiple accreditation cancellations.  In case you missed it the VEU workplan was updated in December including insulation, hydronic heating, PBAProject Based Activities streamlining, and more. 

• LGC Oversupply Crisis: The LGC market remains heavily oversupplied, with prices dropping below $4.00 and recovering slightly. NSW & Federal policy is now pivoting toward requiring “additionality” for new large-scale data centres to stimulate new investment.  That AEMOAEMO, also known as an Australian Energy Market Operator. Is a body that manages electricity and gas systems and markets across Australia. Helping to ensure Australian's have access to affordable, secure and reliable energy. predicts could be 12% of the grid by 2040.  It remains to be seen if LGCs (or REGOs) are the mechanism to drive this investment. 

• STC Target Adjustment: The 2026 STP target has been set at 24 million certificates, a reduction from the previous year, contributing to a slight price softening to $39.60. 

For daily pricing and charts, visit Northmore Gordon’s live certificate price page.  

• ACCUs, Certificates, Energy Efficiency, ESS, LGCs, Market Update, Northmore Gordon, STCs, VEECs

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